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House Prediction, September 13 Edition: Democrats 218, Republicans 217
Whether Nancy Pelosi or John Boehner leads the House of Representatives is a difference fraught with consequence.(Don'tcha think?) Will Barack Obama replay the second half of Bill Clinton's first term, beating back government shutdowns and vetoing legislation, while facing a series of investigations launched by Speaker Boehner? Or will the Democrats weather an awful economy, and populist anger and anxiety, and preserve a thin majority?The New York Times is having an argument with itself on this question. Its House election page suggests that Democrats have 168 seats firmly in their grasp, with 47 more leaning their way, and 33 more jump balls. From that, you'd extrapolate a prediction of 231 or so seats, which is merely a loss of 24. (Some of that is because horserace predictions overvalue past performance, just as sports preview magazines tend to predict that last year's champ repeats.)Meanwhile, founder Nate Silver, now blogging for the Times, puts the mean outcome at 209 Democratic seats, for a loss of 46 and with it a loss of control of the House. Nate is on the more popular side of the issue, as he opines that Democrats are 66% likely to lose the House. I have reviewed data concerning all of the House races thought to be in play, and provide below my predictions. So as not to bury the lede, this piece makes the case in between that of the two NYT cases: I see the Democrats narrowly retaining the House. Here's how I got there. Part One: All Tied Up at 168-168 Per the New York Times, there are 168 safe seats on both sides. This already tells you something, as there are 255 Democratic seats, and 168 safe (meaning that there are 87 Democratic seats thought to be in play), and there are 178 Republican seats, with 168 safe, meaning that only ten Republican seats are in play. I did not accept this assumption uncritically, but instead sifted through races to see what supposedly "safe" races might be in play. The closest I could come was WA-02, where incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen ran 50-46 behind GOP challenger John Koster in a GOP-funded quasi-push poll. However, Washington has an open primary system in which both parties' voters vote at once, and Larsen not only had more votes than did Koster, but the non-Larsen-or-Koster vote for second-tier major party candidates was pretty heavily Democratic. If Larsen is the least safe of the safe Democrats (Nate Silver projects him winning by a 51-47 margin with a 74% chance to win, which I think understates the probability of victory), then I'm good with the NYT's 168/168 base. (NC-04, rated safe by the NYT, shows one poll funded by the R's with a 47-46 R advantage, which Real Clear Politics believes is likewise off.) Next, we move on to the 99 races in play, which we separate into different categories. Part Two: The Weird Races: Four Likely Democratic Pickups In 2010, this will be a brief discussion. The pickup possibilities are in Delaware, Illinois, Hawaii, and Louisiana. First, in LA-02, Rep. Anh Cao (R), elected in a D+20 district by a 50-47 margin in a post-election day runoff after the Democratic incumbent, Jefferson, was caught committing crimes. In this heavily D and heavily African-American New Orleans district, Cao will face African-American Democrat Cedric Richmond. Good luck with that, Anh. In HI-01, equally accidental GOP Congressman Charles Djou won a squeaker special election among himself and two Democrats in heavily Democratic Hawaii. Nate inexplicably rates this race as a jump ball, his model apparently overvaluing incumbency. Djou is toast. In DE-01, moderate Democrat John Carney, who has won statewide elections, is favored to replace incumbent Mike Castle, who is running for Delaware's open Senate seat. Polls suggest that Carney is in good shape (Nate pegs Carney as the most likely Dem pickup, which to me makes little sense, but it corroborates the likelihood he wins.) The final of the four races in which the Dems may win a new seat is a true jump ball. In IL-10, Dan Seals, the Democrat, won 47% of the vote against Rep. Mark Kirk in both the 2006 and 2008 wave elections, which are long gone. Seals runs now against a conservative political neophyte, businessman Robert Dold. The district, won by Obama in 2008 with 61% of the vote, trends wealthy and educated, and many of the GOP's national issues don't resonate as well in affluent suburban Chicago. Seals' own polling shows him up 13, and picking up 22% of Kirk's voters. I'm buying it, though barely. Here, the Democrats will pick up four seats. This puts the Democrats up 172-168, and means the Republicans have to flip 42 seats. But can they? Yes. Will they? Very hard to say.Part Three: Wherein Republicans Cruise to Fifteen Easy Wins All but one of these are pickups, many of first-term Democratic seats. AZ-05: Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) in a rematch against David Schweikert (R) in J.D. Hayworth's old district. Mitchell won 53-44 in 2008 in a wave election. NYT recently downgraded this to a toss-up. I give the narrow edge to Schweikert, who leads 50-44 in a recent GOP funded poll, given his poor approve/disapprove numbers there in particular, given Jan Brewer's coattails, and given rampant Arizona anger at the federal government, which is strongest in Phoenix and suburban areas, which is his district. Republican pickup. CO-04: First-termer Rep. Betsy Markey (D) has polled badly against challenger Cory Gardner, who leads her 50-39 in one. Markey benefited greatly from the Obama operation in Colorado finding and turning out every last blue voter. Sometimes Republican-financed push-polls are right. This District, red in 2006, flips back. Republican pickup. KS-03: Retirement of six-term Dem Dennis Moore pits his wife Stephene against State Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) for the open seat. The district leans red, as does this cycle. Have to agree with Charlie Cook, Yoder will win. Republican pickup. IL-11: First-term incumbent Debbie Halvorson (D) is getting crushed in polls by challenger Adam Kinzinger (R), who will win easily. It's not a "tossup," NYT. LA-03: Charlie Melancon's district. Charlie is running against Vitter, the district is very Republican in character, and Democratic newcomer Ravi Sangesetty will be swamped in the Bayou. Red pickup. Next. ND-01: Rasmussen has polled North Dakota many times, and state legislator Rick Berg is consistently out in front of longtime Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy. Pomeroy is toast. Another red pickup. NH-02: Paul Hodes tried to move to the Senate (he will almost certainly fail), handing this relatively safe House seat back to the red team, running former Rep. Charlie Bass, who leads prohibitively in polls against his two potential rivals, Ann Kuster and Katrina Swett. GOP pickup. NY-29. Eric Massa's district. Better funded and zaftig (can a dude be zaftig?) Thomas Reed (R) is correctly favored to retake this traditionally red district for his team. As opposed to Eric Massa's team. Wait, I'm getting in trouble with the idioms here. Red pickup. OH-01: Rematch of first term Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) against his wave-election predecessor Steve Chabot (R), who represented this district from 1994 until 2008. He'd like his job back. Early 2010 polls suggested Chabot was way ahead. A recent GOP-funded poll suggests it's close, and the internals suggest to me that the voters want fresh ideas and change, and don't see anadvantage there in reverting to Chabot. In a wave election, hard to see Chabot not pulling this one out, perhaps easily, another one-termer out. OH-15: Tea Partying challenger Steven Stivers (R) polls ahead of first-term incumbent Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Expect this to continue on November 2. Red pickup. OH-16: Democrats in states that were worked incredibly hard by Obama's GOTV operation are likely to crash harder than Democrats in states that were not. I see Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado in this group, Pennsylvania and Ohio more so because of the industrial economy and the older electorate, which took more exception to HCR than the average voter. For this reason, I don't see centrist Democrat John Boccieri surviving; he won his first term in 2008 by 10 in a district Obama lost by 2. Ohio's voters are sliding 6-8 points to the right, based entirely upon voter intensity, which should be enough for a red win here. Two polls show Boccieri getting beat badly. I see him losing by 8 to 10. Not pretty. GOP pickup. PA-06: Four term Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) has never won with more than 52% of the vote. This year he faces veteran Manan Trivedi (D), an Indian-American. Gerlach is trying to make an issue of the Manhattan cultural center/mosque, in what seems like fairly transparent race-baiting. Better Gerlach speak of that than his vote for TARP. With Pennsylvania down on HCR, hard to see Trivedi getting to 50%, though that would be a great story. Republicans hold the seat. PA-07: Another seat ceded by the Democrats as the holder vacated it for a futile Senate run (see NH-02, Hodes, Paul). Here, former prosecutors Bryan Lentz (D) and Patrick Meehan (R) vie for Rep. Joe Sestak's seat, a historically Republican one. It will be so again. GOP pickup. VA-05: First-term Rep. Tom Perriello (D) who eked out a victory smaller than Obama's margin in Virginia district faces a relatively moderate R challenger, Robert Hurt. Far ahead in polls, the GOP will put a hurt on the one-termer, another pickup. WI-08: This one is much like AZ-05. Two-term incumbent Steve Kagen (D) holds northeast Wisconsin, including Green Bay, winning 51-49 and 54-46 in a pair of wave elections in a historically GOP House district. The GOP-funded AAF poll suggests that if the September 14 primary is won by Reid Ribble, Ribble is ahead 49-39. Taking that house lean with a grain of salt, i can't see Harry Mitchell or Steve Kagen, two wave-surfers, surfing to the beach in 2010. I pick whoever wins the September 14 primary, whether it's the vaunted Reid Ribble, the alliterative Roger Roth, or another luminary. GOP pickup. Our running tally now stands at GOP 183, Dems 172.Part Four: Nine More for the GOP: Why Are We Even Analyzing These Races? (Answer: Someone says they're "in play." I beg to differ.) CA-03. Mystifyingly considered "in play" by someone at the New York Times (can I have their job? Please?), as Rep. Dan Lungren (R) won by 5 points in the 2008 Obama California Tsunami. Lungren will poll closer to his prior, higher margins. FL-25: Dem Joe Garcia, who lost 53-47 to Mario Diaz-Balart, now tuns against Republican David Rivera for this open seat. Thought to be one of the six best Dem pickup prospects, Garcia's own polling shows him narrowly ahead. But Republicans turned out in far greater numbers for their contested primary, and this being a wave election, the enthusiasm is the trump. MN-06: In a just or sane world, Michele Bachmann would have been retired in 2008. She was not. Why now? Why is this race listed as competitive? For shame, MN-06, and for shame, NYT chart causing me to research it. NE-02: Rep. Lee Terry (R) won his sixth term while Obama was busy winning Omaha's electoral vote in 2008. He's not losing this year. PA-15. Charlie Dent, a GOP incumbent who cruised 59-41 in 2008. I guess they had to list something red in play. Dent wins. Next. TN-06. Bart Gordon, the Bluest Dog of all, retired. Almost three times as many voters voted in the GOP primary as in the equally contested Democratic primary. Ugh. Diane Black will beat Brett Carter (D) in a walk. TN-08. Same story as TN-06. Incumbent Blue Dog John Tanner (D) retires after 11 terms. His buddy, State Sen. Roy Herron, is running for the seat, and is at funding parity with farmer and gospel singer Steven Fincher (R). The GOP primary drew almost twice the number of voters as the Democratic race. Ugh again. WA-03: Brian Baird (D) retired. Denny Heck (D) and Jaime Herrera vie for the open seat. There were 10k more Republican votes in the open primary. This is consistent with Herrera's 13 point lead in a recent poll. Herrera is a safe bet. WA-08. Republican incumbent Dave Reichert, who won narrowly in the last two wave elections, leads by 13 in a recent poll against former Microsoftie Suzan DelBene. Washington ugh. Tally to this point stands at GOP 192, Dems 172. Remember, 218 is the magic number.Part Five: Fourteen (14) Races in Which the GOP Holds Edges I allocate these all to the Republicans, just as in races with definable edges to the Democrats, I allocate them all to the Democrats. On this list, Klein, Grayson, Shea-Porter, Dahlkemper, and Carney seem most likely to prove me wrong, and I hope they do. AR-01: Rep. Marion Berry (D) retired, and his chief of staff Chad Causey (D) has led briefly in one poll, and trailed by more in another against Rick Crawford (R). Arkansas is hard to poll, but Causey beat a quasi-Republican by a handful of votes in a runoff after losing to him in round one. Just spent 15 minutes reading about this one. Crawford looks to me to be a pickup for the red team. For Republican House takeover hopes, he needs to be. IL-14: Denny Hastert's old seat, taken in a special election and in 2008 with 58% by Bill Foster (D). Foster trails in polls in this red-trending district, and despite his funding advantage, barring superhuman Democratic GOTV efforts, I see Randy Hultgren (R) pulling it out, by 3-5 points. FL-08: First-term progressive champion Alan Grayson (D). He won with 52-48 over mediocre opposition in 2008. He has more money than opponent Daniel Webster (R), a seasoned state legislator, but this district trends red. Winning so narrowly in a wave year is not a good sign for 2010. Grayson will come close but lose. FL-22: Rep. Ron Klein (D) beat Republican Allen West (another in the small but notable crop of GOP African-American House candidates) (R) 55-45, but this year Klein, and Dems overall, had far fewer primary votes. This is a rematch of a 10 or less point outcome in a state Obama maxed out for the slate. Narrow edge to Palin-backed, Tea Partying, former Army colonel West, given the primary turnout numbers. The intriguing, Pet Shop Boys (or Village People) influenced banner on West's site? Go West! FL-24: First-term Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) faces challenger Sandy Adams , a former deputy sheriff and widow of another deputy, who has staked out conservative positions on guns and immigration. GOP polls show Adams retaking the district, red until Kosmas, greatly aided by Obama 2008 GOTV, flipped it. Nate says 71% likely to go red; look for it to flip back. MD-01: First-termer Frank Kratovil (D) won this historically very red district 49-48 amid GOP infighting. Incumbency and support from his GOP predecessor will keep him reasonably close, but polls show him losing, and the question is by how much. GOP pickup. MI-01: Good thing the Dems got rid of Bart Stupak, and with him, this seat. Right? (John Boehner agrees.) Polls show Yooper and Republican Dan Benishek cruising by 23 in the race for this open seat over Dem Gary McDowell. MI-07: Well-funded and reliably liberal first-term Rep. Mark Schauer (D) trails in polls to the man he narrowly edged, 49-46, in 2008, very conservative former minister (and one term Congressman) Tim Walberg. This conservative district is sending Walberg back to Congress. NH-01: Second-term incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) is coming back. Her polling in the spring was abysmal. But now she leads several challengers in trial heats. And the statewide race for Senate is coalescing behind Republican Kelly Ayotte, and New Hampshirites are contrary, and like to split tickets. WIth a crowded GOP primary on September 14, who knows who emerges and how it plays. However, Shea-Porter, while left for dead in the spring, will be close, and may get there. PA-03: First-term incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper (D), who won 51-49 in this historically red district, is either up 4 or down 11 to car salesman Mike Kelly (R), the second GOP nominee so employed thus far in my time hunched over the Google. I'll split the difference, given the district's character, and see her as very modestly behind, with one chance in four or five to win (Nate says 34% chance). GOP pickup likely. PA-10: Challenger Tom Marino (R) leads two-term incumbent Chris Carney (D) in two polls by more than 10. There is no polling to the contrary. Marino has no money, but that doesn't seem to matter. Marino will take out Carney easily. How the NYT rates this "leans Democratic" blows my mind. PA-11: Thirteen-term incumbent Paul Kanjorski (D), faces off against Republican Lou Barletta, the Mayor of Hazleton, who he beat by 4 in 2008. Barletta released polls showing him up 4 and 8 in 2008 before losing by 4. So take this year's polls showing him well up with a grain of salt. But Pennsylvania fits with Florida, Ohio, and Colorado as states in which Democratic GOTV created overperformance in 2008. I pick Barletta, though Kanjorski could hold on. VA-02: First-termer Glenn Nye (D) has modest approval numbers, a military-dominated Republican district, and a well-funded challenger in (third one on the board) car salesman Scott Rigell (R). Edge to Rigell. GOP pickup. WI-07: This one irritates. David Obey (D) retires now? A safe blue district turns into a likely GOP pickup. State legislator Julie Lassa (D) trails in the early polling against GOPer Sean Duffy, formerly of MTV's The Real World and himself a prosecutor.Who wouldn't want a prosecutor from The Real World for their Congressdude? Duffy should win the September 14 primary and the general. Our running tally now stands at: GOP 206, Dems 172.Part Six: Eleven (11) Democrats Who Are Meaningful Favorites IA-01: Hey Jim DeMint! If the Democrats face their Waterloo in this election, they will face it with Waterloo's favorite Democrat, two-term incumbent Bruce Braley, who represents that Iowa burg. Braley is polling 50-39 and 47-42 against challenger Ben Lange . Braley won't repeat his 65% tally from 2008, but will exceed 50% on November 2. A safe seat. IN-02: Two-term incumbent Joe Donnelly (D) faces state Representative Jackie Walorski in the battle of the Orlando (the blogger, not the city) district. Donnelly is ahead by 17 in one poll, cracking 50, and is ahead narrowly in the GOP-funded AAF poll. Donnelly won't come close to the 67% he put up in 2008, but won't need to. 53-46 for Donnelly, book it. KY-06: How this district looks much more Republican than KY-03, you'll have to take up with Nate Silver. (Check on election night, it will run bluer.) Three-term incumbent Ben Chandler (D), who won with 59, 85, and 65% in his three wins, voted against HCR and TARP. He has five times the bankroll as challenger Garland Barr, and has led him by 14 and 7 in polls to date (7 being a poll commissioned by the challenger's camp). Nate has this 53% likely red, which shows his model is all hot and bothered about the 2002 vote in the district, 72% GOP. Give me a break, Nate. This leans Dem and by a fair margin. MA-10: Bill Delahunt retires in this district, a combination of union country and wealth that consistently voted about 2-1 Dem, but which (like all of MA) narrowly favored Scott Brown. Tea Party face Jeff Perry looks like he'll win Tuesday's primary and lose to the D, likely Bill Keating. MN-01: Second-term incumbent Tim Walz (D), identified closely with veterans' issues and a 63% vote-getter in 2008, tries for a third term in representing the rural southern tier of Minnesota. Challenger Randy Demmer has low name-recognition and is down 4-1 in funding. This seat is likely Dem, close to safe. MO-03 Rep. Russ Carnahan (D) is up 54-38 on Ed Martin (R), but this is a 2-1 D registration district, so oy. Another District that doesn't belong on an "in play" list. NM-01 First-term Rep. Martin Heinrich (D), who won 56-44 in 2008, is up 49-42 in a GOP-funded poll on challenger Jon Barela (R). Albuquerque is fairly Latino, and the immigration issue that is seeping into the red wave nationally is probably at best net-neutral or detrimental to the GOP in NM-01. Heinrich will win fairly easily. OR-05 First-term incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) is up 44-36 on Scott Bruun (R). Oregon's fifth has consistently handed Dems a +8 performance or better from 2002 through 2008. Schrader has a 5-1 cash on hand advantage. Schrader appears fairly safe, Nate's 63% assumes greater plasticity of the district's numbers than appears plausible. NY-20 First-termer Scott Murphy (D) won his general election by a fingernail to succeed popular Kristin Gillibrand when she moved to the Senate. In a recent GOP-funded poll, he's running 45-40 ahead of challenger Chris Gibson. Murphy has a 3 to 1 funding advantage. This area has continued to trend bluer in recent years. Nate says 74% likely so here. I agree. VA-09: Fourteen-term incumbent Rick Boucher (a no on HCR), with an enormous monetary advantage, faces statehouse majority leader Morgan Griffith (R). Boucher has hit 50 in polling, and shows a 10-13 point lead. Boucher should win fairly handily, though not by the colossal 20-35 point margins of recent years. WI-03: Seven-term Ron Kind (D), who won with 63, 56, 65, and 63% since 2002, faces state legislator Dan Kapanke (R) in an election pitting the Democratic lean of the district and Kind's personal popularity against Kapanke hammering on Kind's votes for the somewhat unpopular HCR and (as history evolves) more unpopular TARP legislation. To paraphrase Madonna, he'll be Hanky Kapanke on November 2, as his own released polling shows him behind by 6, meaning he will be repaid in Kind, or perhaps killed with Kind-ness, on election day.Running tally says: GOP 206, Dems 183.Part Seven: Six (6) Democrats Who Are Safe Among "In Play" Districts (Really, There Are Some) Thought to be "in play," these seats are barely that. AR-04: Rep. Mike Ross (D), who earned 75 and 86% in his last two elections is up 49-31 on Beth Rankin (R). An honest to God, safe Blue Dog. CA-18: Dennis Cardoza (D), who has won 67, 65, and 100% in his last three outings, is a prohibitive favorite to win a fifth term over unfunded challenger Michael Berryhill. GA-12: Three-term incumbent John Barrow (D) faces a weak challenge from Republican Raymond McKinney. Both were in contested primaries, and Barrow got more votes, as did Democrats generally. The District is nearly half black. Nate says 100% likely for Barrow. I agree, not sure why this district is "in play" on anyone's board. ID-01: Tea Party Express-endorsed Blue Dog Walt Minnick (D) (yep, I meant that) is running way ahead in trial heats of GOP challenger Raul Labrador. The seat is uber-safe. IL-08: Three-term incumbent Melissa Bean (D) faces off against Keystone Kops challenger Joe Walsh (R), whose campaign seems to be living a Life of Illusion, with only $30k in the bank. Bean reheats on November 2, Dems rejoice. NY-13: In this increasingly racially diverse district, well-funded first-term incumbent Mike McMahon (D) of Staten Island drew essentially no opposition and has the support of elements of the Staten Island Republican machine. This Blue Dog can hunt. Safe seat. Running tally is now GOP 206, Dems 189.Part Eight: Twenty-Three Democrats With a Narrow But Definable Edge I see these going about 18-5 for the Democrats. AL-02: Incumbent Bobby Bright won with 50% in 2008. He voted against HCR and TARP. He has led by low double digits, and recently by 9, in polls pitting him against challenger Martha Roby. Narrow edge to Bright. AZ-08: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) against Jesse Kelly (R), a 29-year-old Tea Partying former Marine who won a narrow, Sharron Angle-like upset over GOP favorite Jon Paton. GOP push-pollster AAF shows this one 46-46, but their own poll shows Giffords with a 52% approve and 13% Republican support. Giffords has more money than God. She will win, but by under 5. She's securing the crossover support she needs to win in a district in which there is a Republican registration advantage. CA-47: Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D), who won by 40 in 2008, has a more credible challenger in Assemblyman Van Tran (R). Yet even the push poll says 45-43 Sanchez. Hard to see her losing in this two-thirds Latino district. CT-04: First-term incumbent Rep. Jim Himes (D) led 46-42 in a GOP-funded poll in this increasingly blue state over challenger Dan Debicella (R). Assuming even a mild house lean in the poll, which we have seen to have one in Washington, where actual voting can be used to prove the point, I view Himes as leading, not quite safe, but 80% likely to win, just as Nate Silver says. CT-05: Two-term incumbent Rep. Chris Murphy (D) led by one point in challenger Sam Caliguri's own poll. Murphy enjoys a crushing monetary advantage and won with 56 and 57% in his last two outings. Murphy enjoys a narrow, definable advantage, which Nate Silver modestly overrates in assigning him an 84% chance of winning. FL-02: Seven-term incumbent Allen Boyd (D) won with 62% or more in his last four outings. Oddly voting yes on HCR and no on the stimulus, Boyd faces GOP challenger Steve Southerland. A GOP poll in the spring suggested a large Southerland lead, but the two contested primaries saw far more voting on the Dem side. Since we weight that against Dems where the reverse is true, it cannot be all bad for Rep. Boyd. Likewise, Southerland in a crowded field did not get 50% of the GOP primary vote. Boyd has 8-1 more cash on hand. I agree roughly with Nate, who has this at 59% likely for Boyd. GA-08: Two-term incumbent and Blue Dog Jim Marshall (D) leads in the only recent poll (a GOP-commissioned one) 44-39 over challenger Austin Scott. The District is 33% black, and gave Marshall 51% in 2006 and 57% in 2008. This is nearly a jump ball, razor's edge to the blue team. This is the kind of race that will be a bellwether of other races and of House control. IA-03: Seven-term incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) faces underfunded challenger Brad Zaun. Two earlier polls showed Boswell down, but the most recent (and a GOP-funded poll) showed Boswell leading 47-41 among those certain to vote, which cuts against one of the most important ideas in assessing House polls, which is the extent to which one should assume the GOP voters are more motivated. In IA-03, Boswell's are more so at the moment. The district includes Des Moines, some union country, some college country in Des Moines and Grinnell, and may be a bit more immune from the southern-western rural and national suburban Tea Party. I pick Boswell narrowly, bucking Nate's contrary prediction (63% Zaun) and the NYT's tossup rating. KY-03: Two-term incumbent John Yarmuth finally isn't running against predecessor Ann Northup, who he beat by 3 and 18 points in 2006 and 2008, respectively. Polls have showed him up a point or two on challenger Todd Lally. Yarmuth, whose internal polls show him up by 26 (?) needs to turn out the black vote (thanks, Rand Paul!). Nate says this is 92% likely a Dem win; I'd say more like 60%. MI-09: First-term incumbent Gary Peters (D), a nine point winner in 2008, seeks to defend this depressed suburban district against the almost unfunded challenge of Rocky Raczkowski, who was nicked in the primary by charges that he committed fraud in connection with his business. This race, AZ-08 and IL-08 will show whether money matters, huge gobs of monetary superiority. If so, look for Peters to eke out a second term, albeit by less than five. If not, look for GOP control of the House. NC-08: A close contest in this Tar Heel light-blue state. First-term Blue Dog and HCR-no voter Larry Kissell (D) takes on challenger Harold Johnson (R). Though this is an R+2 district, Obama has a net favorable rating of +5 during summer polling. The district is 28% black, and heavy black turnout tipped the state blue in 2008, and this district too. Given that Kissell has led by 12 and 6 in polls, he rates a razor's edge, as those advantages are below 50, albeit in a state in which the President's favorability is presently higher than national norms. NY-01: Four-term incumbent (D) Tim Bishop of Lawn Guy Land, a 58-42 winner in 2008, will likely face businessman Randy Altschuler in a sprint from Tuesday's primary to November 2. The only poll worth anything has Bishop up 47-45, suggesting a true coin-flip on election night. His past performance is strong. I see a narrow win. NY-23 Bill Owens became the first Dem to represent this district since Reconstruction, when John McHugh became Secretary of the Navy, and in a nationally-followed special election, the Republican vote split between Republican Dede Scozzofava and Conservative Doug Hoffman. Hoffman has the nod from the Conservative Party again, while the Republicans are running Matt Doheny. Only 66% of Republicans say they'll vote for Doheny, so the vote-splitting fun continues, to Owens' advantage. Oh, and Owens leads Doheny narrowly in a GOP-funded head-to-head poll omitting Hoffman, who he already recently beat. Owens should win. NY-25: First-term incumbent Dan Maffei (D) won 55-42 in 2008, and faces a challenge from Ann Marie Buerkle , who is touting that John Boehner endorsement. She has trailed in Maffei's poll by 19, her own poll by 9, and a GOP poll by 3, though in all but Maffei's, the incumbent is not at 50. Narrow edge to Maffei, despite Nate assigning it a 91% likelihood. OH-06: Ted Strickland's old district. Incumbent Charlie Wilson has a war on his hands, facing GOP standard-bearer Bill Johnson while defending yes votes on TARP, the stimulus, and HCR in a very West-Virginia-ey district, encompassing the geographic and cultural edge of Appalachia in Ohio. Last time out Wilson pulled 62%. Take a few points off that for the Obama GOTV that was just supremely effective in Ohio in 2008. And looking at internals from OH polls in 2010, the registered pool is D+6, and the likely voter pool is even. Subtracting all of that, and assuming it's a rocky ride, Wilson wins by under 5. Nate says 83% likely, I'd say less so. OH-13: Second-term incumbent Betty Sutton (D), a 61-39 and 65-35 winner in past outings, faces off against car salesman Tom Ganley (R). Ganley has some discrimination suits going to trial against what he describes as his "automotive empire." Look for Dems to drive his negatives up; Sutton has a good favorable/unfavorable split of 42/27 per the GOP/AAF push poll that still showed her two points ahead of Ganley. Past performance and house effect tells me she survives, something like 52-46. OH-18: Second-term incumbent and HCR no-voter Zack Space (D) polled 62 and 60 percent in his two wins. He's got a 6-1 cash on hand advantage, and the most his opponent Bob Gibbs can say is that the race is tied, according to Gibbs' internal polls. This rust-belt and rural district east of Columbus is, according to all observers (and according to the implied beliefs of GOP leaders who have not committed resources to it) likely to return Space to Congress. Nate's model says 51%, but that's overweighting Bob Ney's strong performances back in the day. As Queen would say, Hot Space. A Dem hold. PA-12: Mark Critz (D) won the special election to succeed the deceased John Murtha, defeating Tim Burns (R) by more than 8 points. Polls suggested Burns would win that election, and he got beaten badly. Again, polls suggest it's close, but the area is overwhelmingly Democratic in registration, and the Democratic GOTV that outperformed the polls by miles in the special is likely to be in effect again with a Senate seat on the line. Despite Nate picking Burns (61% likely, says the master), I'll go with the results of the special election, as Critz hasn't done anything to merit going from 53% to 49% in a few months. PA-17: Nine-term incumbent Tim Holden (D), an HCR no-voter who eked by in the strong GOP year of 2002, but won 59, 65, and 64% of the vote since then, faces State Senator Dave Argall (R). In Argall's favor, 46,000 voted in the contested GOP primary, 36,000 in the contested Dem primary. Meanwhile, Holden has $884k on hand, Argall has enough to buy a Camry ($28k). The district is conservative. No one is bothering to poll it. Researching it made me nervous. If it goes down, the GOP will have the House by 5-10 votes. I give Holden a narrow edge. SC-05: Fourteen-term incumbent John Spratt (D) risked his electoral health by voting for HCR, which is the major issue raised by his challenger, newcomer Mick Mulvaney . Mulvaney's polls show Spratt ahead by a nose, but under 50, while Spratt's polls are unreleased but claiming to show him with a bit of margin. Slight edge to Spratt, despite Nate Silver giving him a 33% chance. TX-23: Two-term incumbent Ciro Rodriguez (R), winner with 54 and 56% in two prior outings in this largely rural western Texas district that is 65% Latino. An early poll showed Rodriguez ahead of challenger Quico Canseco. I don't think with immigrant-bashing so prominent within the GOP playbook that this district will go that way. Narrow advantage Rodriguez. VA-11: First-termer Gerald Connolly (D) faces a rematch against Keith Fimian (R), who he handled 55-43 in 2008 in this suburban NoVa district. Fimian is seen as pretty conservative, and had issues with tax liens. Connolly has five times more cash on hand. Connolly rates a modest edge. WV-01: Mike Oliveiro (D) beat incumbent Alan Mollohan in the primary, and now faces David McKinley. West Virginia is the state of Blue Doggia, with a huge Dem registration advantage and antipathy toward Obama and Pelosi. Oliveiro has been ahead, but his margin is tightening, as is true in the Senate race including Gov. Manchin. Looks like a narrow Oliveiro win, more likely than not. Nate's 70% likely McKinley win seems off. Running tally as we head toward the wire: GOP 211, Dems 207.Part Nine: Eleven (11) Confusing, Near Jump Ball Races Of these seventeen, I think the Dems will win seven (AZ-01, CA-11, CO-07, NM-02, NY-24, SD-01, TN-04), I think the Republicans will win four (AZ-03, CO-03, NV-03, NY-19) AZ-01:Blue DogAnn Kirkpatrick (D) against Paul Gosar (R). AAF push-poll puts Gosar slightly ahead at 47-41, but gives Kirkpatrick a 42/33 favorable/unfav. Her District includes largely unpollable Navajo and Hopi country, hard to poll rural mountain areas (where she is stronger than the poll indicates, I know this area well), and liberal Flagstaff, less injured by foreclosures than most of the southwest. Her conservative stances on guns and other issues may be enough to pull it out. Jump ball. I pick Ann. AZ-03: This one is a doozy, and I know it from the inside, so I'll say the NYT (rating it leaning Republican) and Nate (98% chance for the R's!) are full of it. Dan Quayle's kid, Ben, who has never voted in a local election, and who helped start a racy website called Dirty Scottsdale (now "The Dirty") and called himself Brock Landers (after an alternate name used by fictional pornster Dirk Diggler in Boogie Nights!) narrowly won a nine-way GOP primary in a district won 54-42 in 2008 by longtime incumbent GOP John Shadegg. Well-funded centrist Dem Jon Hulburd is hammering Ben on Christian radio with the porn references (the pseudonym he's alleged to have used on The Dirty called women "sperm catchers" and referred to its absent moral compass). Usually politicos wait until they're in power to rack up a profile like that (see Vitter, D.) Sorry, I refuse to assume the GOPster wins simply because the well-regarded Shadegg won by 12 in 2008, or because lots of GOP-ers voted in a primary when Hulburd didn't contest one. Also, Hulburd's family is heir to the SC Johnson fortune, so if it's close, he's not going to be outspent. Phoenix conservatives are sweating this one, and should be. True jump ball. I pick Ben Quayle. CA-11: Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) is a two-termer who faces a well-funded challenge from David Harmer in a district with essentially even registration east of San Jose. Polls showed McNerney up 42-40 and down 45-44. Truest of jump balls. In this cycle, if you have a gun to your head on this one, it's California. McNerney. CO-03: Coloradans are independent, and this state very purple. Republican Scott Tipton (who lost in 2006 62-37 to his present opponent) leads Rep. John Salazar 51-43 (AAF, R). This margin seems real in CO, where Buck is slightly up on Bennet, and where Colorado's Obama GOTV in 2008 was just out of this world. It's a jump ball, but I pick Tipton. CO-07: Hoo boy. Rothenberg doesn't bother rating this race as competitive. NYT rates it leaning blue. Nate says it's 68% likely to be a Dem win. Ecch. What are they looking at? The most recent poll shows incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) in a 40-39 dead heat with Aurora councilmember (and African-American) councilman Ryan Frazier (R). Another jump ball in Colorado. Perlmutter running 63-37, well ahead of Obama in 2008, makes me think if you pick this one at the point of a gun, pick him. But only then. Jump ball. I'll grudgingly pick Perlmutter. NM-02: First-term Rep. Harry Teague (D) faces off against several term prior Rep. Steve Pearce (R) in this half-Latino district in this increasingly blue state. Teague led 45-42 in a recent independent survey, showing both men splitting the independent vote. Teague's vote for cap and trade is likely an asset in green New Mexico, his vote against HCR can't hurt. I think this will be one of the closest in the country. If forced to guess, I guess Teague, but it's a pure tossup. Nate's 76% (for Pearce) is dead wrong, and overvalues national trends. NV-03: First-term incumbent Rep. Dana Titus (D) faces off against insurgent Republican Joe Heck. Lots of commercials up in Vegas on this one, with the same arguments you see in Reid-Angle: one is a socialist, the other a terrifying retrograde radical. Titus isn't polling to 50, which is a bad sign. She benefits from Harry Reid's tens of millions in GOTV and media, which is good. Also, notably, Nevadans can vote for "None of These Candidates". Don't ask me why they would show up to do that, since you can win a Nevada election 5% to 2%. But I think the possibility of winning this race with 47% after unleashing an onslaught of negative ads is feasible for Titus, though I favor Heck to win. NY-19. One of the most interesting contrasts, perhaps the most, on the board. Orleans ("Still the One") guitarist and two-term incumbent John Hall (D) is opposed by well-funded, self-described Tea Partying abortion-rights supporter (can you do that?), whose husband has performed abortions (no, really, can you do that?), Republican Nan Hayworth. This feels like a jump ball, despite the NYT rate of leaning Dem, and despite Nate's concurrence that Hall, 64% likely, is Still the One in NY-19. NY-24: Two-term incumbent Michael Arcuri (D) in a rematch against Republican Richard Hanna -- in 2008 it was 52-48. Arcuri meanwhile voted against HCR and leads in Dem-funded polls. It's New York, which is bluish. No clear edge, but Arcuri's HCR vote helps, I pick him. SD-01: Three term incumbent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin broke through in 2004, not the best cycle for a Democratic pickup. Since then, she's scored 68% in two easy wins. This time opposed by conservative Kristi Noem, Herseth-Sandlin, who voted against TARP and HCR, maintains a narrow lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll. Like Giffords in AZ-08, she is seen as centrist, pragmatic, and nonideological, and like Giffords, poll internals show her picking up older voters and Republican voters, and not getting gapped among independents in a year when Democrats are often failing on each of those fronts. Nate Silver says 82% likely Noem wins, but that modeling predated the new Rasmussen poll. And Ras leans right. This blue dog barks on. TN-04: Four-term incumbent Lincoln Davis (D) faces physician and political neophyte Scott DesJarlais . Davis is making much of DesJarlais having moved to the district in the early 90s, whereas Davis and 85% of district residents are from TN-04. Davis has a large money advantage. No reliable polling. Tossup. I'll take the local boy.Which brings us to the running tally: GOP 215, Dems 214Part Ten: Go Flip a Coin: Six Impossible Races To Call, Which I Proceed To Call IN-08: Uber-Blue Dog Brad Ellsworth (D) left this seat open to pursue a futile bid for Evan Bayh's vacant Senate seat. Indiana is swinging back red. Tea Partying Cardiologist Larry Bucshon against Blue Dog prosecutor William Trent Van Haaften (D), in an unpolled, rural, kinda sorta Democratic district. A true jump ball. My gut says Bucshon. IN-09: A jump ball for most of the last decade, this southern Indiana district saw Baron Hill win three terms narrowly, lose one narrowly, and win narrowly in 2006 before winning decisively in 2008, running 9 points ahead of Obama within his district (narrowly won by John McCain). For the first time since 2000, Hill is not up against Mike Sodrel, but instead attorney and newcomer Todd Young (R). The only poll was early and inconclusive, showing Hill up 41-34. Expect this one to be decided by 1-2 points either way. Truly even. Gut says Baron pulls out one more within the recount margin. M0-04: Seventeen-termer Ike Skelton (D), chairman of the veterans' affairs committee, has won with 66-68% in each of his last four outings. So why is this a jump ball? Skelton has polled 47 and 45, state legislator Vicky Hartzler 35 and 42. So Skelton is ahead, but the truism that incumbents need to poll to 50 to win seems more apt here, where Skelton is super-known to his constituents, and his stature in Congress is beyond dispute. Skelton did vote against HCR, and enjoys a funding advantage, but he seems to enjoy a narrow edge, if any. If this one happens, it will be repeated all night in TV tapeloop. My gut is Ike survives. MS-01: First-term Rep. Travis Childers (D), who won with a massive black turnout in 2008, 54-44, now faces Republican Alan Nunnelee. Both have polls showing them ahead by less than ten. Childers has NRA and right to life endorsements. Childers may be the last true southern conservative white Democrat in the House. I say Childers ekes it out. NJ-03: In this red district, first-term incumbent John Adler (D) (also a no on HCR) faces off against former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan (R). Adler has led in the only independent poll I can find, but only 40-30. There is also an inert candidate on the Tea ballot line, a kind of instant Tea, not the real thing, who may siphon off 1-2%. A jump ball, but after Christie took back the governor's mansion in New Jersey, perhaps the red wave has crested a bit there. 50/50. The Eagles haven't won anything since Ron Jaworski, but my gut picks Runyon. PA-08: A 2006 rematch: Two-term incumbent and Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy (D) faces former Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick in a battle for this exurban Philadelphia district. A GOP poll shows a 7 point Fitzpatrick lead, a Dem poll shows Murphy up 4. Murphy's 57-42 vote total in 2008 exceeded Obama's Pennsylvania margin, and his favorables are relatively solid. A jump ball.My gut tells me Fitzpatrick, but I thought the Bears would beat the Colts in Super Bowl XL as well, so I'll pick Murphy. There. I've double-jinxed John Boehner! Dems 218, GOP 217. Bryon Russell falls to the floor, nothing but net, as Representative Murphy caps the win in inhospitable circumstances! I will update these predictions after a few more weeks of race polls. Cheers!
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Athletics at the 2004 Summer Olympics – Women's 4 x 100 metres relay
Debbie Ferguson , Shandria Brown , Chandra Sturrup , Timicka Clarke ... Kim Gevaert , Élodie Ouédraogo , Lien Huyghebaert , Katleen De Caluwé ...
2008 Women's European Union Amateur Boxing Championships
Debbie Rogers | 52 kg FRA Saliha Ouchen ENG ... Medal winners: Lotte Lien | 70 kg ENG Lesley Sackey FRA Gihade Lagmiri ITA Patrizia Pilo ...
Wong (surname)
Debbie Wong , Hong Kong born actress and model ... Elizabeth Wong (Elizabeth Wong Chien Chi-lien), Hong Kong-born writer and politician ...
Midwestern Sectional Figure Skating Championships
MN | Andrea Aggeler | Melissa Parker | Erin Pearl | Angie Lien | ... Eve Chalom / Mathew Gates | Debbie Koegel / Michael Sklutovsky | ...
List of American film actresses
A colwidth 30em. Amy Acker ... Debbie Allen Elizabeth Allen Joan Allen Karen Allen ... L colwidth 30em ... Jennifer Lien Riki Lindhome Laura Linney ...
Cast members of As the World Turns
Sharon Case | Debbie Simon | 1992-1993 | ... Notable Alumni |! : Ming-Na | Lien Hughes | 1988–1991 | Lea Salonga | Lien Hughes | 2001–2002 ...
Tony Award for Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Lauri Peters and the Children (Kathy Dunn, Evanna Lien, Mary Susan ... 1980s : Debbie Allen – West Side Story as Anita. Glenn Close – Barnum ...
List of As the World Turns characters
H : Bennett Hadley: ... Lien Hughes : Ming-Na (1988-1991): Lea Salonga (2001; 2003) ... S : Diego Santana ... Debbie Simon: Sharon Case (1992-1993) ...
List of Star Trek: Voyager cast members
G : Juan Garcia ... Debbie Grattan H : Richard Herd as Owen Paris ... L : Paul Robert Langdon ... Jennifer Lien as Kes John Loprieno Randy Lowell ...
1996 United States Figure Skating Championships
15 | Debbie Koegel / Michael Sklutovsky | 28.2 | 14 | 15 | 14 ... Novice ladies |! : 7 | Angie Lien | 11.5 | 13 | 5 |! 8 | Erin Pearl ...