Debbie Sanford

Travis Childers Dina Titus Carol Shea-Porter Ann Kuster Harry Teague John Hall Michael Arcuri Larry Kissell Earl Pomeroy Steve Driehaus Mary Jo Kilroy Zack Space Kathy Dahlkemper Bryan Lentz Patrick Murphy Chris Carney Paul Kanjorski John Spratt Stephanie Herseth Sandlin Roy Herron Chet Edwards Ciro Rodriguez Glenn Nye Tom Perriello Denny Heck Mike Oliviero Julie Lassa Steve Kagen Steve Raby Ami Bera Joe Garcia Trent Van Haaften Stephene Ann Moore John Callahan Jon Hulburd Jon Hurlburd Stephen Pougnet Lori Edwards Ravi Sangisetty Pat Miles Tarryl Clark Tom White Matthew Zeller Paula Brooks Manan Trivedi Brett Carter Suzan Delbene Colleen Hanabusa Robert Dold Cedric Richmond Lisa Murkowski Barbara Boxer Michael Bennet Alexi Giannoulias Robin Carnahan Paul Hodes Lee Fisher Joe Sestak Harry Reid Scott McAdams Kendrick Meek Charlie Crist Jack Conway Patty Murray Russ Feingold Richard Blumenthal Joe Manchin Chris Coons Ron Wyden Kirsten Gillibrand Mike McMahon Scott Murphy Bill Owens Heath Schuler Charlie Wilson Betty Sutton Kurt Schrader Mark Critz Lincoln Davis Rick Boucher Gerry Connolly Rick Larsen Ann Kirkpatrick Harry Mitchell Jerry McNerney John Salazar Betsy Markey Allen Boyd Alan Grayson Alan Grayson Suzanne Kosmas Jim Marshall Debbie Halvorson Bill Foster Phil Hare Baron Hill Leonard Boswell Frank Kratovil Gary McDowell Mark Schauer Mike Ross Dennis Cardoza Christopher Murphy John Barrow Melissa Bean Bruce Braley Dave Loebsack John Yarmuth Chellie Pingree Tim Walz Russ Carnahan Rush Holt Carolyn McCarthy Dan Maffei Bob Etheridge Mike McIntyre David Wu Jason Altmire Tim Holden David Cicilline Jim Matheson Ron Kind Bobby Bright Gabrielle Giffords Jim Costa Loretta Sanchez Ed Perlmutter Jim Himes John Carney Ron Klein Sanford Bishop, Jr. Walter Minnick Joe Donnelly Ben Chandler Gary Peters Ike Skelton John Adler Martin Heinrich See this Amp at http://bit.ly/91o4RR Chip in for my golf addiction

I have written in this space that the Democrats would win the House, 218 to 217, and would win the Senate, 53-47. Since those September 13 and 18 posts, there were two significant changes in the world of forecasting, both very strongly consistent with the thrust of my September 13 prediction of the Democrats winning the House, 218-217. I stand by these predictions at present, and reviewing these changes in widely-respected forecasts underscores why. Nate Silver's Adjustments To His House Model Bring It Closer to the Dagblog 218-217 I begin with the esteemed Nate Silver, the founder of fivethirtyeight.com, and now writing Nate Silver's Political Calculus for the New York Times. Nate's September 17 post updating his House modelpoints to five races, three of which I highlighted as trending decisively in a manner not yet broadly appreciated. They are Idaho-1 where Walt Minnick is a mortal lock with a huge lead (and not the narrow leader Nate's model said he is), South Dakota-1, where Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin has stormed back to slightly ahead of strong challenger Kristi Noem (on the strength of reports of Noem's brushes with the law), and Pennsylvania-10, where Democrat Chris Carney is toast. (Nate also points out that in MI-09, challenger Rocky Raczkowski, the R, leads incumbent Democrat Gary Peters 45-40 in exurban Oakland County). More significant than a few races where I had written a few days earlier about then-fresh data is (not assuming he read me making it) Nate meeting the substance of the critique I mounted of his House model. Again, while I have great respect for Nate and what he's doing, the first, early-September iteration of his model of necessity rested upon national trends, generic ballots, and historical data about districts, as there simply was not that much in the way of local polling and data that could be merged into it. Nonetheless, I attempted the job of handicapping the races from scratch, using a lot of anecdotal data, and applied my own judgment to the weighting of often-partisan polls. Nate's reaction to his own model is to state that he will be emphasizing local factors increasingly as the poll data come in, as he should. And in doing so, he lowered the probability of the GOP taking the House this week from 67 to 63%, and raised the average number of seats the Democrats win in his model from 209.7 to 211.6 (the .6 of a seat is apparently a Blue Dog). So Nate has the Democrats 5.9 seats from a push, closer to our prediction. Since the dagblog prediction includes a number of predicted Democratic losses not captured by Nate's model, or by the New York Times' own race ratings, I'm feeling pretty comfortable at the 218-217 mark. But there's more. Congressional Quarterly's Re-Rating of the Races Against Democrats Actually Show the Democrats Overperforming My More Conservative Predictions Monday morning, Congressional Quarterly re-rated many races, almost all of them against Democratic candidates. While that doesn't sound heartening, my predictions so far stand intact, because almost every re-rate merely captures a loss I predicted, or takes an even more bullish view of the prospects of the Democrat. First, the races in which CQ rerates and predicts the Democrat will lose, listed by district and the current Democratic occupant of the seat (including those pols simply retiring, like Tennessee's John Tanner, or running for a new office, like Indiana's Brad Ellsworth and New Hampshire's Paul Hodes): CO-04 (Betsy Markey); FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas); IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson); MD-01 (Frank Kratovil); NH-02 (Paul Hodes); OH-01 (Steve Driehaus), OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy), TN-08 (John Tanner). None of these represent a dent in my 218-217. Second, CQ moved from Leans Democratic to Tossup five races, which on balance I already rated as overall favorable to the GOP, picking four Republicans and only one Democrat, very narrowly. I rated these five, respectively: narrow Dem win (AZ-01's Ann Kirkpatrick), Dem loss (AZ-05's Harry Mitchell), Dem loss (PA-10's Chris Carney), big Dem loss (WI-08's retiring David Obey, and narrow Republican win (NY-19's John Hall). If these are tossups, then the Dems should win one or two more than my 218-217 would expect, not fewer. Third, CQ moved three races from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. The first is CO-03, in which incumbent John Salazar (D) faces Scott Tipton, as Leans Democratic. I still pick Tipton to pull off the upset. CQ still picks Rick Larsen in WA-02, which is good, since he had the most votes in Washington's open primary, and Democrats a still greater majority of votes in WA-02 as compared to Republicans. Looking to pick an upset fashionably early, CQ also listed GA-02 (Sanford Bishop, Jr.) as "Leans." This is epically wrong -- GA-02 is 47% black. Good luck with that, CQ. So here, I had one Dem loss, and CQ has either one or none. So my prediction seems strong. Fourth and finally, CQ moves CA-03's Republican Dan Lungren into Tossup (I still pick Lungren), and moves TX-17's Chet Edwards (D) from Tossup to Leans Republican. Giving the GOP TX-17, which is far from a done deal, CQ's shifts still leave Democrats predicted to overperform my prediction. Working Hypothesis: Democrats Will Bounce Back Modestly in the Coming Month, Putting Them About Where I Predicted My read of the current data is that Democrats are bouncing back modestly. For one thing, the Tea Party has riven the Republican Party with open ideological conflict that will reduce the motivation of non-Tea Republicans to vote. This should be a modest but actual effect. For another, the rise of Angle and O'Donnell has given the Democrats more traction for their national campaign message that they are running against loony wingnuts.More importantly to me, when I look in poll internals, I see pieces of information that are subtly consistent with that view. Barbara Boxer and Harry Reid, tied or narrowly ahead, pick up an absurd share of leaners when Rasmussen runs its polls. I think the Republican vote is already in place, and the angry likely voters who want change are locked in. The leaners are actually breaking for the incumbents. I think there is a harder ceiling on the insurgents in this cycle, and the resurgences of Harry Mitchell in AZ-05 (now polling up one), Dana Titus in NV-03 (same), and Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-01) all suggest this hypothesis. Please don't interpret me as being very rosy in my view of the Democratic position. The Democrats are saddled with a lousy economy and a less motivated base. But there are also more Democrats, Democrats have more money in almost every race in which they have incumbents, which is most races, the Democrats have a far better national GOTV operation in place, as 2008 is still very recent. The Democrats are also positioning themselves better lately, with the GOP shooting down DADT and resisting Obama's proposed tax cuts, where the poll math helps the Democrats. I think the Democrats are clawing their way back, and have such substantial momentum and number advantages in their current population in Congress that my 218-217 and 53-47 still read right. And there's nothing in Nate or CQ to suggest otherwise -- so far.

One of the strangest and, at times, most compelling things about todays brave new media world is the increasingly blurred line between hard facts and opinion. Sure, sometimes opinions have been shared in a way that some find irresponsible but just as often, the imparting of a personal anecdote can be a benign catharses for both newscaster and viewer. Case in point? Fox News Megyn Kelly reliving her first grade trauma as bullying victim. First, some background: recently, the cable news world has been all over a case in central Florida in which a father was arrested for threatening children who were bullying his 13-year-old daughter. James Jones of Sanford, Florida has been portrayed as the sort of do-good vigilante that wouldnt accept having his daughter bullied every day on the school bus. It was after this report was filed on America Live that Kellys wound seemed to open. She first spoke out just as cohort Trace Gallagher was wrapping up a segment about the central Florida story. Later in the hour, Kelly came back to her first grade tormentor, Debbie, as she wrapped up a report with Shannon Bream. The show then sort of just turns into a therapy session. Oddly, its not the self-absorbed vanity play that one might expect from a news host sharing a childhood memory; in classic Kelly fashion, she comes off as charming and down-to-earth. Watch the following clip and see for yourself.

I have written in this space that the Democrats would win the House, 218 to 217, and would win the Senate, 53-47. Since those September 13 and 18 posts, there were two significant changes in the world of forecasting, both very strongly consistent with the thrust of my September 13 prediction of the Democrats winning the House, 218-217. I stand by these predictions at present, and reviewing these changes in widely-respected forecasts underscores why. Nate Silver's Adjustments To His House Model Bring It Closer to the Dagblog 218-217 I begin with the esteemed Nate Silver, the founder of fivethirtyeight.com, and now writing Nate Silver's Political Calculus for the New York Times. Nate's September 17 post updating his House modelpoints to five races, three of which I highlighted as trending decisively in a manner not yet broadly appreciated. They are Idaho-1 where Walt Minnick is a mortal lock with a huge lead (and not the narrow leader Nate's model said he is), South Dakota-1, where Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin has stormed back to slightly ahead of strong challenger Kristi Noem (on the strength of reports of Noem's brushes with the law), and Pennsylvania-10, where Democrat Chris Carney is toast. (Nate also points out that in MI-09, challenger Rocky Raczkowski, the R, leads incumbent Democrat Gary Peters 45-40 in exurban Oakland County). More significant than a few races where I had written a few days earlier about then-fresh data is (not assuming he read me making it) Nate meeting the substance of the critique I mounted of his House model. Again, while I have great respect for Nate and what he's doing, the first, early-September iteration of his model of necessity rested upon national trends, generic ballots, and historical data about districts, as there simply was not that much in the way of local polling and data that could be merged into it. Nonetheless, I attempted the job of handicapping the races from scratch, using a lot of anecdotal data, and applied my own judgment to the weighting of often-partisan polls. Nate's reaction to his own model is to state that he will be emphasizing local factors increasingly as the poll data come in, as he should. And in doing so, he lowered the probability of the GOP taking the House this week from 67 to 63%, and raised the average number of seats the Democrats win in his model from 209.7 to 211.6 (the .6 of a seat is apparently a Blue Dog). So Nate has the Democrats 5.9 seats from a push, closer to our prediction. Since the dagblog prediction includes a number of predicted Democratic losses not captured by Nate's model, or by the New York Times' own race ratings, I'm feeling pretty comfortable at the 218-217 mark. But there's more. Congressional Quarterly's Re-Rating of the Races Against Democrats Actually Show the Democrats Overperforming My More Conservative Predictions Monday morning, Congressional Quarterly re-rated many races, almost all of them against Democratic candidates. While that doesn't sound heartening, my predictions so far stand intact, because almost every re-rate merely captures a loss I predicted, or takes an even more bullish view of the prospects of the Democrat. First, the races in which CQ rerates and predicts the Democrat will lose, listed by district and the current Democratic occupant of the seat (including those pols simply retiring, like Tennessee's John Tanner, or running for a new office, like Indiana's Brad Ellsworth and New Hampshire's Paul Hodes): CO-04 (Betsy Markey); FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas); IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson); MD-01 (Frank Kratovil); NH-02 (Paul Hodes); OH-01 (Steve Driehaus), OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy), TN-08 (John Tanner). None of these represent a dent in my 218-217. Second, CQ moved from Leans Democratic to Tossup five races, which on balance I already rated as overall favorable to the GOP, picking four Republicans and only one Democrat, very narrowly. I rated these five, respectively: narrow Dem win (AZ-01's Ann Kirkpatrick), Dem loss (AZ-05's Harry Mitchell), Dem loss (PA-10's Chris Carney), big Dem loss (WI-08's retiring David Obey, and narrow Republican win (NY-19's John Hall). If these are tossups, then the Dems should win one or two more than my 218-217 would expect, not fewer. Third, CQ moved three races from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. The first is CO-03, in which incumbent John Salazar (D) faces Scott Tipton, as Leans Democratic. I still pick Tipton to pull off the upset. CQ still picks Rick Larsen in WA-02, which is good, since he had the most votes in Washington's open primary, and Democrats a still greater majority of votes in WA-02 as compared to Republicans. Looking to pick an upset fashionably early, CQ also listed GA-02 (Sanford Bishop, Jr.) as "Leans." This is epically wrong -- GA-02 is 47% black. Good luck with that, CQ. So here, I had one Dem loss, and CQ has either one or none. So my prediction seems strong. Fourth and finally, CQ moves CA-03's Republican Dan Lungren into Tossup (I still pick Lungren), and moves TX-17's Chet Edwards (D) from Tossup to Leans Republican. Giving the GOP TX-17, which is far from a done deal, CQ's shifts still leave Democrats predicted to overperform my prediction. Working Hypothesis: Democrats Will Bounce Back Modestly in the Coming Month, Putting Them About Where I Predicted My read of the current data is that Democrats are bouncing back modestly. For one thing, the Tea Party has riven the Republican Party with open ideological conflict that will reduce the motivation of non-Tea Republicans to vote. This should be a modest but actual effect. For another, the rise of Angle and O'Donnell has given the Democrats more traction for their national campaign message that they are running against loony wingnuts.More importantly to me, when I look in poll internals, I see pieces of information that are subtly consistent with that view. Barbara Boxer and Harry Reid, tied or narrowly ahead, pick up an absurd share of leaners when Rasmussen runs its polls. I think the Republican vote is already in place, and the angry likely voters who want change are locked in. The leaners are actually breaking for the incumbents. I think there is a harder ceiling on the insurgents in this cycle, and the resurgences of Harry Mitchell in AZ-05 (now polling up one), Dana Titus in NV-03 (same), and Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-01) all suggest this hypothesis. Please don't interpret me as being very rosy in my view of the Democratic position. The Democrats are saddled with a lousy economy and a less motivated base. But there are also more Democrats, Democrats have more money in almost every race in which they have incumbents, which is most races, the Democrats have a far better national GOTV operation in place, as 2008 is still very recent. The Democrats are also positioning themselves better lately, with the GOP shooting down DADT and resisting Obama's proposed tax cuts, where the poll math helps the Democrats. I think the Democrats are clawing their way back, and have such substantial momentum and number advantages in their current population in Congress that my 218-217 and 53-47 still read right. And there's nothing in Nate or CQ to suggest otherwise -- so far.

If you're looking for info on your favorite Democrat's policy positions you've come to the right place. A friend sent this list of key Congressional races which tells you everything you need to know. If these links don't convince you to throw the bums out nothing will! Travis Childers Dina Titus Carol Shea-Porter Ann Kuster Harry Teague John Hall Michael Arcuri Larry Kissell Earl Pomeroy Steve Driehaus Mary Jo Kilroy Zack Space Kathy Dahlkemper Bryan Lentz Patrick Murphy Chris Carney Paul Kanjorski John Spratt Martin Heinrich Roy Herron Chet Edwards Ciro Rodriguez Glenn Nye Tom Perriello Denny Heck Mike Oliviero Julie Lassa Steve Kagen Steve Raby Ami Bera Joe Garcia Trent Van Haaften Stephene Ann Moore John Callahan Jon Hulburd Jon Hurlburd Stephen Pougnet Lori Edwards Ravi Sangisetty Pat Miles Tarryl Clark Tom White Matthew Zeller Paula Brooks Manan Trivedi Brett Carter Suzan Delbene Colleen Hanabusa Robert Dold Cedric Richmond Lisa Murkowski Barbara Boxer Michael Bennet Alexi Giannoulias Robin Carnahan Paul Hodes Lee Fisher Joe Sestak Harry Reid Scott McAdams Kendrick Meek Charlie Crist Jack Conway Patty Murray Russ Feingold Richard Blumenthal Joe Manchin Chris Coons Ron Wyden Kirsten Gillibrand Mike McMahon Scott Murphy Bill Owens Heath Schuler Charlie Wilson Betty Sutton Kurt Schrader Mark Critz Lincoln Davis Rick Boucher Gerry Connolly Rick Larsen Ann Kirkpatrick Harry Mitchell Jerry McNerney John Salazar Betsy Markey Allen Boyd Alan Grayson Alan Grayson Suzanne Kosmas Jim Marshall Debbie Halvorson Bill Foster Phil Hare Baron Hill Leonard Boswell Frank Kratovil Gary McDowell Mark Schauer Mike Ross Dennis Cardoza Christopher Murphy John Barrow Melissa Bean Bruce Braley Dave Loebsack John Yarmuth Chellie Pingree Tim Walz Russ Carnahan Rush Holt Carolyn McCarthy Dan Maffei Bob Etheridge Mike McIntyre David Wu Jason Altmire Tim Holden David Cicilline Jim Matheson Ron Kind Bobby Bright Gabrielle Giffords Jim Costa Loretta Sanchez Ed Perlmutter Jim Himes John Carney Ron Klein Sanford Bishop, Jr. Walter Minnick Joe Donnelly Ben Chandler Gary Peters Ike Skelton Stephanie Herseth Sandlin John Adler Technorati Tags: Democrats House Senate

ENDICOTT — The Endicott Lions Club and Past District Governor Larry Sanford presented two club members with ... Robert Sterlacci, 2nd VP; Debbie Swartwood, secretary; Philip Struzerri, treasurer; William Smith, Lion Tamer; Ronald Tillotson ...

Women — Debbie Dockery 214, Leah Loveland 200 ... Barton Granvold 725, Michael Pinsly 704, Kevin Sanford 695, Bill Roop 680, Chip Newman 676, Gregory Herbst 675. Women — Stacy Reyes 701, Rebecca O'Conner 691, Paula Houck 643, Erica Delgado ...

Helen has three children, Margaret (Sanford) Selvey of Green Springs ... Joshua Cherry; Bea LeJeune; Debbie Dunn; Kaylyn Druckenmiller; Benjamin Seltzer; Krista Jackson; and Marcella Fultz; The cake, donated by Ideal Bakery West, can be picked ...

It’s Governor Sanford with a flashlight looking for something to tax ... Those who visited were Barbara Wall, Martha Hogan, Linda Sprinkle, Debbie Puett, Debbie Golightly, Susan McCracken, Susan Abee and Sherry Crowe. They were greeted ...

That’s why David Baker, Emily Mitchell, Sandy Bryant, Frankie McVay, Stephanie Nelson, Beth Taylor, Bob O’Neal, Brandi Thomasson, Carolyn Graham, Debbie Foley Rossell ... from the City of Opp, Town of Sanford, Covington County Commission ...

A graveside service will be at 11 a.m. Wednesday, April 25, 2012, at Loney-Sanford Cemetery on McCourtney Road ... Russ is survived by his beloved companion, Debbie Carver; his parents, Leroy and Doris Mitchell of Grass Valley; uncles, Marion ...

The 11th annual Sanford Pottery Festival next weekend will feature more ... two airline tickets to anywhere in the Continental United States, sponsored by Debbie's Destinations. A hole-in-one on No. 10 wins a new car, sponsored by Lumberton ...